The criticism (mostly from the Left) that defining victory in Iraq was next to impossible was always misguided. On a tactical level, the definition put forth by the Bush Administration—a relatively stable democratic state, able to defend its borders, monopolize the use of force, an ally of America’s against Islamist extremists—was both reasonable and measurable.
With the elections last week in Iraq, we now have an opportunity to assess progress towards this tactical goal. Not only were the elections free of any large-scale violence, it appears that secular nationalist parties won a decisive victory; this bodes well for democracy and an Iraqi form of liberalism. In addition, the central government’s hand seems to have been strengthened. Al Qaeda in Iraq has been largely routed in the last few years, and it seems fair to say that the current Iraqi government will be a U.S. ally in the region.
No doubt all of this could fall apart (Tom Ricks today on Meet the Press warned Americans not to get complacent because the war is far from over), especially if the Islamist representatives who were defeated in these elections do not give up their power peacefully—but at this juncture the hope for a tactical victory in Iraq looks at least somewhat promising. This comes at a perfect time for the Obama Administration, which has promised to draw down U.S. combat forces and hand over authority to the Iraqi government.
As to the larger strategic aims of the Iraq War, it is clear that the conflict has been an abject failure by every measure. Putting aside the fact that there were no WMDs (the major stated reason for the invasion), the war’s primary objective was to bring about change in the authoritarian states of the Middle East and “drain the swamp” of the root causes of terrorism.
On the contrary: if anything, the prospects of wider democracy in the Middle East look dimmer now than at any time in recent history. The Iraq War has had no positive spillover effects on the Israel-Palestinian issue, with Hamas as emboldened and intransigent as it was when it assumed power three years ago. Iran has not been chastened by the military defeat of its neighbor, and in fact, has become even more aggressive: speeding up its development of nuclear weapons, and escalating its anti-U.S. rhetoric. There are no signs that Syria, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia is any more democratic now than six years ago, and political repression is still the norm.
Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to be the power centers for Al Qaeda, and the situation in these countries has actually worsened. Coalition casualties are on the rise, the Taliban is ascendant, and top Al Qaeda operatives remain free to organize and plot attacks. The Abu Ghraib scandal, coupled with the abuses at Guantanamo, has been a recruiting magnet for the terrorists, attracting a continuing stream of foreign fighters to Al Qaeda training camps.
And don’t forget the huge costs of the conflict, both the direct and opportunity costs. We were once told that the war would be quick and easy and cost little. Instead, the price tag will reach the trillions and the lives lost will be in the tens of thousands (in its first official estimate, released only last week, the U.S. military put the Iraqi death toll at over 95,000, but other estimates put the toll in the many hundreds of thousands). That doesn’t include the more than 4,000 American deaths, the tens of thousands of severely wounded (who would’ve died if not for the amazing medical advances of the last decades), or the Iraqis driven from their homes; and we will never know what might have been accomplished if the resources expended on the war had been brought to bear on other issues.
All told, while we should be celebrating the potential tactical victory in Iraq—both for us and for the Iraqi people—the arguments in favor of the invasion and subsequent occupation are weaker than ever.
P.S. The NYT has an article surprisingly similar to mine (with similar conclusions) in today's Week In Review.
P.P.S. For anyone interested in environmental issues check out my new book, which can be downloaded for free.
Jason Scorse