Lost amidst the intense activity on the domestic front are the subtle shifts underway in foreign policy, which eventually may add up to a paradigm shift in U.S. international relations and strategy. While it is too early to gauge the success of these shifts, initial signs are encouraging.
Obama’s Iraq policy is the one area in which the Republicans are in agreement with the president, praising his decision to withdraw the majority of combat troops within 18 months and leave a residual force of 30,000-50,000. There is virtual unanimity within the foreign policy establishment that this plan is not only doable, but the best course of action. There are some who fear an increase in violence as the U.S. withdraws, but for the moment it appears that we will be able to largely extricate ourselves from what has become the longest war in U.S. history.
On the Afghanistan front there is less agreement, but a significant shift is underway nonetheless. Obama’s decision to send 19,000 more troops to the region and escalate the drone attacks against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistan are consistent with his long-held view that this area is the central front against Islamic extremism. On 60 Minutes this Sunday, Obama is expected to make clear that stamping out Al Qaeda completely is a main foreign policy goal.
Many are critical of the drone attacks because of the high civilian casualties; others believe that escalating any military involvement in Afghanistan is a fool’s errand. But the stakes are too high to continue the status quo: Pakistan is unstable, nuclear-armed, and incapable of securing its own territory.
Turning to Russia, Vice-President Biden has signaled a willingness to “reset” U.S.-Russian relations and word has gotten out that the U.S. may considering putting off plans for a European-based missile defense shield in exchange for greater Russian involvement in pressuring Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. This is a major shift from the Bush Administration, and a risky one because Russia clearly has ambitions to extend its sphere of influence further into Eastern Europe and Central Asia; at the same time, it is unlikely that Iran can be stopped without Russia’s cooperation.
Obama’s video-taped message to the Iranian government and its people was especially noteworthy for its attention to detail: it was translated into Farsi (a few words of which Obama spoke at the end), and the President used the term “Islamic Republic of Iran,” a first for an American president. The message received the expected dismissal by Iranian leaders, but there is no doubt they are having a hard time figuring out how to deal with Obama; he is extremely popular among the Iranian people, and is at least making an attempt at a new relationship. Obama has the potential to reshape Middle Eastern perceptions of America and regain the moral high ground. Both will be necessary if we expect any progress in dissuading Iran from its pursuit of nuclear weapons, even if military force is ultimately necessary.
On the Palestinian-Israeli front, the Obama Administration has signaled that it will commit to high levels of engagement right away and actively promote such negotiations. Whereas the Bush Administration largely ignored the issue for almost all of Bush’s presidency—wrongly thinking that the removal of Saddam was the first step towards a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue—Obama is under no such illusions.
Over the subsequent months and years we will see how these new initiatives bear fruit; but there is no doubt that a new American foreign policy is being implemented, even as the primary focus in on America’s economic crisis. Obama surely has his hands full.
Jason Scorse